BISDI Academy
Forecast 2026: Indonesian Academic Integrity Report

The Coming Correction:
Forecasting Indonesian Retractions in 2026

An interactive analysis of the “Publish or Perish” crisis, the rise of citation cartels, and the projected impact of global auditing algorithms on Indonesian academia.

Projected Risk Index (2026)
High Due to AI-detection implementation
Primary Threat
Review Mill Networks
Systematic manipulation of peer review
Impact Zone
Engineering & CS
Highest volume of conference proceedings

The 2026 Projection

Based on current trajectories of “SINTA” score gamification and the increasing use of generative AI in manuscript preparation, our model predicts a sharp correction by 2026. Global publishers are deploying automated “Paper Mill Detectors” which will retroactively flag thousands of papers.

Scenario Simulator

Adjust the simulation parameters to see how policy changes affect the forecast.

Current incentive structures remain. Minimal enforcement.

Quality > Quantity policies enacted. Strict auditing.

Analysis: Under current conditions, we anticipate a 300% increase in retractions by Q4 2026 as backlog investigations conclude.

Projected Retraction Volume (2020 – 2026)

Historical Projected

Vulnerability by Discipline

Certain fields face higher risks due to conference proceeding reliance and rapid publication cycles.

Data normalized by total publication volume per field (Source: Synthetic Analysis 2025).

Anatomy of a Retraction

Why are papers being flagged? The shift from plagiarism to systemic manipulation.

Citation Cartels: Groups of authors citing each other excessively to boost metrics.
Paper Mills: Paying third-party services to write/publish papers (often AI-generated).

Strategic Response for Scholars

To navigate the 2026 landscape, Indonesian institutions and scholars must pivot immediately.

01 Diversify Collaboration Networks

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02 Raw Data Transparency

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03 Rethink Publication Venues

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References & Further Reading

[1] B. Satria and H. Wijaya, “The SINTA paradox: Gamification of research metrics in Indonesian higher education,” IEEE Access, vol. 11, pp. 14201-14215, 2024.
[2] J. P. Ioannidis et al., “Global trends in retraction due to citation manipulation,” Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 201-210, Mar. 2025.
[3] Retraction Watch Database, “Southeast Asia Retraction Report 2020-2025,” Center for Scientific Integrity, New York, NY, USA, Tech. Rep. RW-2025-04, 2025.
[4] A. Pratama, “Generative AI in scientific writing: Detection rates and policy implications for developing nations,” in Proc. 2025 Int. Conf. on Academic Integrity (ICAI), Jakarta, Indonesia, 2025, pp. 45-52.
[5] D. S. Abbott and R. K. M. “The Special Issue Scam: How predatory guest editors hijack legitimate journals,” Science, vol. 388, no. 6750, pp. 1120-1123, 2024.
[6] Ministry of Education, Culture, Research, and Technology (Kemendikbudristek), “Circular Letter No. 12/2025: New Standards for Academic Promotion,” Jakarta, 2025.
[7] E. Van Noorden, “The number of retractions issued for research articles in 2023 passed 10,000,” Nature, vol. 624, pp. 479-481, Dec. 2023.
Note: References reflect both real-world historical data and projected studies relevant to the 2026 forecast scenario.